![]() Historically, a college running back who has a good size-speed combination, has a high average yards per carry, and represented a large percentage of his college team's running attack is likely to succeed at the NFL level. Put simply, why would a team use a first-, second-, or even a third-round pick on a prospect who is just as likely to succeed as one available in the fourth or fifth round?Ä«ackCAST projects NFL running back success based on statistics that have correlated with success in the past. There is no generational prospect in this year's draft, and after Bijan Robinson, there is little separating the next tier of runners from one another. This year's BackCAST projections suggests that bargain-bin shopping for running backs may be an even better strategy this year than usual. Second, it is 2023, and by now coaches, pre-draft analysts, scouts, and all NFL fans who are not living under the largest of boulders have recognized that running backs have traditionally been overrated and that teams are wise to shop for them in the later rounds and save their high picks on the true premium positions. First, this is a not an especially strong year for top running backs, with only one sure first-round prospect. ![]() NFL Draft - Running backs are likely to fall in the 2023 NFL draft for two reasons.
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